29. April 2010 23:10
Regular listeners may know that I am partial to a flutter, especially when a match does not lend itself to automatic excitement. I have been looking at a few bets for the World T20 which starts tomorrow. To start with the first two matches in tournament are NZ vs Sri Lanka and then WI vs Ireland.
For NZ vs SL I think the result is a tough one to call as both sides have some good spin bowling (Vettori & Nate McCullum vs Murali & Mendis - when you put it like that it hardly seems a contest!). My favourite bet here is for Scott Styris (yes really, Styris) to beat the over 30.5 points on cricketbetlive.com. This has 1pt per Run, 10pts per Catch, 20pts per Wicket, 25pts per Stumping so just 11 runs and 1 wicket wins you this bet at odds of 1.9 (9/10) which sounds good when you think he managed 83 points in the warm up vs WI (4 wickets and 3 runs). Another one that is tempting here is Tilikeratne Dilshan under 21.5 runs at 1.9 given his disappointing IPL form (also cricketbetlive.com). On bet365.com you can go for top team batsman and anyone but Dilshan looks tempting here, especially Jayasuriya (6.0) who will be able to handle good spin bowling and smack it and Angelo Matthews if you're feeling lucky at 11.00.
For WI vs Ireland it's a tougher call. Ireland lack any quality spin option and are going to get smashed all tournament. I'm tempted by Keiron Pollard under 34.5 (ie he takes less than 2 wickets) given he probably won't get a bat but it's too risky that the Irish hole out to his dobbers in a vain attempt to keep up with the run rate. I like Shiv Chanderpaul over 26.5 runs at 1.9, batting first he has the head on him to not go mental on what will be a tough pitch and batting 2nd chasing an inevitably low total I like him to guide them home.
More generally for the rest of the tournament skybet.com has Sangakkara at 20/1 to be top batsman in the tournament and if you fancy SL to get to the semis at least then this is good value. I don't think England have the balls to win crunch matches abroad so I'd be happy to lay them at 10/1 on betfair.com whilst NZ have the ability to surprise with some seasoned performers, some hitters and only the lack of a really sharp pace bowler holding them back (25/2 on betfair).
Please note that my past performance (taking £50 off Daniel in the IPL semi) is no guide to future perfrormance and your returns are likely to go down more than up.