Brisbane. Remember that place? Where England’s victorious campaign to retain the Ashes began. Where the “Should Be Dropped” Alistair Cook scored the runs required for all of Cricket Bet Live’s punters to get their money back on his series runs. So – this is a batting track, right?
Well... kind of.
11 out of the last 21 first innings here have been between 241 and 274 – With teams not bowled out averaging 259 and winning 8 times out of 11 finished games. It seems like if you bat through your innings and get a total on the board then you’re most likely to win.
Bet Tip #1:
If you want a middle on England/Australia’s first innings; Go for 225-289. Both teams have a fairly gritty batting line-up that will most likely last the innings (Perhaps England’s being a bit more fragile with Anderson back in the mix) and get over 225.
However, be warned. The Average score for a team bowled out is only 214 with only one out of 6 finished games ending in the score being defended. So if England bat first, feel free (If you’re Australian) to shove your money on England being bowled out under 230 and losing – if you’re that deluded.
As for the players, Trott is the only batsmen I’d back. He has performed time and time again this series – so if you want to back an English batsman go for him. But you’re all intelligent people (as you follow Test Match Sofa) so you knew that one.
Betting Tip #2 (And #2.5):
Cricket Bet Live have decided to pair him against Shaun Marsh – who has failed a few times more this series than Trott has – so that batsman match bet is a good one to pick, potentially along with Trott’s player performance of over 38.5.
As for the Bowlers...
In the last 10 years at Brisbane:
Pace Bowlers have taken 211 wickets.
Spin bowlers? Well... only 40.
More interestingly; Jimmy Anderson’s last two games here have given him 4 wickets in total. Put into Cricket Bet Live Player Performance words, he averages 40 points without any extra runs or catches (which we know he can do!). So...
Betting Tip #3:
Jimmy Anderson Player Performance – Going Over on him on 32.5 is a bet in your favour as 2 wickets is a doddle for this man!
Betting Tip #4:
Brett Lee Player Performance – Going Over on him on 37.5 is also a bet in your favour as he gets a few runs along with wickets.
The reason for this is Lee has 11 wickets at Brisbane, and along with his Points Average of 49.75 in the series so far, everything seems to make me think he’ll make the points comfortably.
Backing the bits and pieces bowlers like Smith and Yardy could backfire on you on this pitch. Alright, Smith Averages 49.25 points this series but as I said Spin Bowlers (Or Slow Bowlers in this case) have barely taken wickets here – with the top two being the great Murali and, funnily enough, Clarke.
Betting Tip #5:
If you feel gutsy and want to back an all-rounder then back David Hussey, even on over 40.5. Averaging 61 points this series he has been a stand out player for me (and has made me some money too).
Betting Tip #6:
England to Win. England has better pace bowlers and Colly. It’s a pace man’s pitch. However; take into account Cricket Bet Live is ran by Aussies. Wait until the England line creeps up near 2.7 after Prior gets out cheaply and then profit out of it.
However I do have one final word of warning, kind of a disclaimer. This pitch might not be the same due to the recent disaster in Australia. So don’t get mad at my interpretations of the stats if all goes wrong; as I most likely myself will be down a few quid.
Statistics provided by the Test Match Sofa wizard @howe_zat (Jake Howe) and Advice/Tips provided by @Cerebz (Steven Ellans) and website used for betting is www.TestMatchSofa.com sponsor www.cricketbetlive.com – what I find to be the best cricket betting website out there and what this article is based upon.
*Player Performance Points are based upon the following scoring:
20 points per wicket, 1/run, 10/catch, 25/stumping and nothing for run-outs.