July 2010

Let's see how Pakistan do now they're not at home!

by ben 28. July 2010 13:01

So I had an absolute shocker with the Australia-Pakistan test picking the draw as my favourite bet! My folly was pointed out well before the match by CricketBetLive's owns Goldie (follow him on twitter) and as always he was right. Despite that the rest of my shouts were pretty good even with bloody Hilfenhaus sneaking a fifth wicket in the test right at the end to make the bet versus Asif a push.

This week, as well as the lines for the 1st test, CBL have various series bets up as well. I like the under on Matt Prior's series line of 335.5 points* as he averages 82 points per match and there could easily be a couple of second innings that he doesn't get to bat in. The other series line I like is over 305.5 runs in the series for Andrew Strauss. He's in decent enough form having scored 154 against Bangaldesh in the final ODI and an average of 38 for the series doesn't seem too onerous. There are also some series spread bets I like. Spread bets pay out depending on how right you are. If you go over Strauss' runs line of 75, for example, and he scores 100 you would be paid £25 but if he scored a duck you would lose £75. This is obviously higher risk but potentially higher reward way of betting. I like the highest individual score in the series to be under 175 and the highest partnership in the series to be under 220 (both at Extrabet). The combination of two strong bowling attacks and Pakistan's batting lend me to these.

On to the test itself and I like under 299.5 for Pakistan's first innings on CBL, especially at better than evens. They couldn't manage a score over 300 against Australia in the two recent tests and England's bowling line is better than the Aussie's. For spread bets the under 24 on Pakistan "ton ups" (total runs over individual 100s in the match) looks good with a weak batting side against a strong bowling side.

Our coverage starts tomorrow at 10.45am and as usual we'll be updating listeners throughout the day with our in-play picks. Pick of the test is Pakistan < 299.5 for the first innings. Good luck.

* 20 points per wicket, 1/run, 10/catch, 25/stumping.

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If only I could bet on Afridi to un-retire again

by ben 19. July 2010 19:14

So I'm back after a break that was partly due to being on holiday but mostly due to laziness and I'm staring at the slate for the 2nd Australia-Pakistan test and trying to find inspiration. The first thing to be aware of is that the weather forecast is awful, heavy showers for the first 3 days according to the BBC. That means that an obvious choice is the draw at 2.8 on Betfair. Australia needed all of four days to beat Pakistan at Lords, even with a 15 wicket day, and it doesn't look like they'll get that long in Leeds.

With that bit of bad news out of the way let's have a look at some player bets. On Betfair you can back Katich to ourscore his cultureless, cretinous, blond twat of an opening partner, Watson, at 1.87. Given that conditions will likely be tough and that Twatto has the finesse of a gorilla with parkinsons trying to use an iPhone this seems rather attractive. Our friends at CricketBetLive have a special line on when, if at all, Ponting will score his 12,000 run during the test. The Aussie skipper averages over 100 at Headingly it's tempting to back him to get the 46 runs required at some point in the test. However, given the short odds (effectively 1.5 if you back both 1st and 2nd innings) and the immense pleasure of watching him get out I'm leaving this one alone.

More attractive, in my view, is Kamran Akmal under 94.5 points for the test*. Although he averages 97.5 points per test he is not in great form with the bat and isn't very likely to get any stumpings at Headingley. Add to that his infalible ability to drop catches against Australia and you have what sub-continental bookmakers refer to as a "sure-thing".

In another head-to-head offering from CBL you can back Asif to get more wickets than Hilfenhaus at evens. Asif averages 5 wickets per test whilst Hilfenhaus averages 4 and has never taken more than 5 in a single test. There's some risk here that Australia may only bat once but I still like this given that Hilfy takes so few wickets.

Favourite bet is the draw. I will update thoughts via Twitter throughout the match and you can always follow the live advice of Daniel and Nigel as they turn the Sofa account into our retirement fund.

* 20 points per wicket, 1/run, 10/catch, 25/stumping.

If signing up with CricketBetLive they have a 20% first deposit bonus and a referral scheme, please email them quoting account 8913 once you have opened your account. Thanks.

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